Let us emphasize here something we all know about theory, whether it concerns predicting the weather or trying to explain how the brain works. Theory gives us a guideline to interpret observations and facts so as to arrive at generalizations and make predictions. In theorizing, we set up assumptions not only to explain our data, but also to relate to them in a practical way. We may predict that it is going to rain in our general area because the barometer is falling, but we are not certain what part of the area will receive showers. The Weather Bureau includes not only barometric readings but also other data. Using these data, it can come up with a statement about the statistical chances for rain in any given area. Like personality theorists, weather forecasters use statistical, atmospheric, and other indicators to guide their thinking. Like psychologists, they drop theories, modify theories, and come up with new ones as they discover fresh data.
What about theories whose results are difficult to check? An example: studies show that most adults can repeat a series of seven numbers immediately after the series is read. However, if these persons are asked to repeat the numbers thirty minutes later, most cannot do so. In the first instance, we are dealing with short-term memory, a type of immediate memory span quite different in process from long-term memory. Behind these basic observations lies a theory of two-stage chemical memory storage. According to this theory, immediately after every learning trial, a short-lived electrochemical process is established in the brain. Within a few seconds or minutes, this process decays and disappears, but before doing so, it triggers a second series of impulses in the brain. These impulses are chemical in nature, involving the production of new 'proteins and the induction of higher enzymatic activity levels in the brain cells. In theory, this process provides the more enduring long-term memory.
This theory of memory is possibly of interest only to the people doing research in the area. Personality theory likewise is of more interest to the speCialist than to most of us. But like the weather, we do find theories of personality valuable in helping us understand the sources and workings of ourown personality.
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